HP Innovation Journal Issue 09: Spring 2018 | Page 8
2 01 8 H P M E G AT R E N D S R E P O R T
At the same time, we are going to see tremendous drags
on the economy, including human and natural resource
strains. The number of persons aged 60 or above is expected
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to more than double by 2050 . This will lead to a decline
in the number of workers per retiree, putting a strain on
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productivity and output. Global public debt may near 95%
of the gross domestic product. We will have significant new
infrastructure maintenance costs, and the desires of the
surging global middle class will drive resource shortages.
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During this time period, a nearly 50% increase in
global demand for product will require a fundamental shift
in how we make, sell, work, extract, and manage resources.
Our current products, processes, and rate of innovation
will not be enough to make this happen in a sustainable
way. Instead, we will need to push boundaries and further
accelerate the speed of innovation.
Our vision at HP is to create technology that makes life
better for everyone, everywhere. To achieve this, we need to
continually rise to the challenge as global citizens and push
the boundaries of innovation to create a more efficient and
fulfilling future.
LOOKING BACK, TO LEAP AHEAD
We are at the dawn of a new global industrial revolution. For
centuries major technological advancement has fueled new
industries, markets, and economies. The productivity gains
unleashed by innovation freed workers to achieve greater
production and take on new tasks and opportunities.
If we look at the 1800s and early 1900s, the invention
and mass adoption of steel and steam-powered engines are
considered by many to be the building blocks of the Indus-
trial Revolution. These innovations led to huge productivity
gains and economic growth, by enabling factories to move
from producing dozens of products a day to thousands. This
pioneered faster and more efficient transportation. And it
transitioned labor from man-powered to machine-pow-
ered. All helping to grow the global economy to $1.2 trillion 8
in 1817.
The 1900s brought new technological triggers for eco-
nomic growth and efficiency gains with the adoption of
petroleum, antibiotics, and electricity. While slow to scale,
these innovations helped usher in new forms of heat, trans-
portation, and extended life expectancy. It also catapulted
the global economy to approximately $5 trillion 9 in 1917.
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And as we move farther into the 2000s, we see three
technological trends converging that, together, have the
potential to generate the same kind of growth.
BioConvergence
The first trend is the intersection of biological, physical,
and computing technologies known as BioConvergence.
BioConvergence enables us to make things using the
principles, materials, and processes of nature and the
advancements in digital technology. This means creating
new materials, substituting existing materials, and devel-
oping new fabrication processes to make more efficient
and resilient products. Indeed, sustainability concerns
arising from our current production and consumption
means necessitate such an approach. As an example, 75%
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of elements of the periodic table are in a smartphone .
Nature-inspired fabrication allows us to harness and mimic
the natural processes and materials that surround us, ulti-
mately leading to the creation of goods customized for
local markets and demographics. Local, sustainable, and
affordable production will improve the lives of people all
over the planet. Innovation that taps the power of nature—
literally—is already here in lithium-ion batteries made of
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alfalfa seeds and pine resin . And we may one day see the
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entire Internet backed up on a single gram of DNA .
Frictionless Business
Converging technologies will also help us gain efficiencies
in how we do business and bring products to market. Over
the next decade, various disruptive technologies, including
Artificial Intelligence (AI), Blockchain, and the Inter-
net of Things (IoT) will combine to transform business
processes that have to date resisted the digital transforma-
tion. Enabling transformation across business processes,
ranging from faster-automated product creation through
generative design, to streamlining procurement with smart
contracts and autonomous negotiation, and reshaping how
we sell and distribute products.
This will allow for increasingly complex product
bundling and assembly to occur closer and closer to the
customer. An early example of this is Hema supermarkets
in Beijing and Shanghai, where they provide a data-driven
selection of fresh food to customers based on their loca-
tions. With 3D printing, HP is laying the groundwork for